Executive Summary

The study has provided the methodology specifying the trans-disciplinarily approach of combining the biophysical, socioeconomic and demographic factors. For climate change impacts on crop suitability and agro-ecologically attainable yield, the study applied the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) methodology, which was jointly developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The AEZ approach is a GIS-based modeling framework that combined land evaluation methods with socio-economic and multiple-criteria analysis to evaluate spatial and dynamic aspects of agriculture. The AEZ methodology provides data on current and future agricultural production. Based on the data on migration, the spatial pattern of future livelihoods could be analyzed. This would help spatial pattern of livelihoods and climate change adaption strategies. All this would devise guidance towards policies and governance of land and water, and mechanism for effective climate change adaptations.

In this regard climate-related impacts and adaptations have been captured to explain vulnerability of rural livelihoods. Scenarios of agriculture in Gujarat for various Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) in the 21st century is developed. The Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) methodology has been in use since 1978 for determining agricultural production potentials and carrying capacity of the world’s land area. A new methodological approach has been developed to assess livelihood vulnerability by combining the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) with the proposed sustainable livelihood framework, which explains communities’ understanding of climate-related impacts and adaptations by capturing interconnected interactions that occur in the dynamic climate-human-environment interaction space. Further, the study has deployed the simulations that allow analytically tracing feedback mechanisms captured in the cognitive maps, and helps to develop future scenarios to facilitate decision makers in order to identify pathways to climate resilient development and to prioritize adaptations. A typology of adaptations being practiced has also been provided for the case studies

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