Executive Summary

The study on ‘Indian Perspectives on Global Energy Scenarios Till 2050’ was launched in partnership with Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi for its implementation under the India-IIASA Programme. The study was approved with the total financial assistance of Rs.17,93,000/- toIRADefrom TIFAC.

The present study has been an attempt to identify India’s energy mix in long term (2050), expected future energy technologies and investments in the context of climate change. Issues of future energy technological transitions to maintain sustainable development were also addressed in the study. An improved version of existing IRADe model has been an outcome of this study to project Indian energy scenario in global perspective by using IIASA’s model and adapting the same in Indian context. This long term comprehensive study up to 2050 will help analyze India’s position with respect that of other regions and will be very helpful to policy makers in decision making within the country and at international fora. Dr. KeywanRiahiSenior Research Scholar and Acting Leader-Energy Program, IIASA had jointly worked with IRADe on the aforesaid study.

i. Study existing IIASA global regional energy scenarios from India’s perspectives. ii. Suggest new scenarios suitable for India and reflect India’s viewpoints. iii. Extend the time horizon for India’s energy projections up to 2050 iv. Get familiarized with the process of developing energy scenarios for other world regions which would help to address energy security issues. v. Understand energy transitions needed in the future that is consistent with global perceptions and research and development. The IRADe team has analyzed various energy projections in different reports across the world such as GEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Outlook, World Energy Technology Outlook, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Energy Revolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook etc. Each of the aforesaid report had several scenarios. IRADe team has chosen a scenario that was considered as the most plausible. IRADe team has also compared the energy transitions for the world and implications for India in each of these scenarios.

IRADe researcher had visited IIASA, Austria twice to study and analyze the implications of the GEA scenarios for world and India in particular. While working on four scenarios with the help of IIASA team, the researcher could finalize IRAde model at IIASA. The GEA scenarios model energy demand and supply on a global scale. The results are provided for 11 world regions in which India is included in the South Asia region. Since the GEA model results are available only for South Asia region and India would constitute a very major part of it. The draft report contains the implications for South Asia, with India being a dominant region, in terms of Energy demand, supply portfolio and investment needs under different levels of demand side management, energy supply portfolio choice and choice of transportation means.

The current shares of India in the South Asia region were used to downscale the results for India from the results of the South Asia region. The exogenous assumptions about GDP and population were analyzed and apprehensions conveyed to the IIASA team. The IRADe team further analyzed the implications of the GEA scenarios for India from the downscaled results and compared them to the results from four other such global level exercises and also to the results of the IRADe Activity analysis model. The IRADe Activity analysis model is an optimization model with focus on the energy sector while accounting for macroeconomic and sectoral consistencies. The comparison with IRADe model results provided a basis for examining the macroeconomic implications of the GEA scenarios. From IRADe model analysis, it was concluded that:

1) Substantial carbon reductions could be achieved through the power sector alone 2) The model results suggested Nuclear and Solar thermal as the viable options for India to compensate for thermal power in a low carbon strategy for power sector. 3) Low carbon technologies in non-electricity sectors would be vital else further CO2 emission reduction could lead to loss of output and welfare. 4) CCS in power generation from coal and natural gas could further increase the mitigation potential from the power sector.

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