MARKET PROSPECTS :
The market prospects for PV is not easy to determine. The main factors influencing the market are as follows.
1. World wide technology / price trends, its impact on prices and its diffusion in India.
2. Government motivation / incentives /financial support.
3. local manufacturing capability base available in cells as well as systems and raw materials.
4. institutional development support in terms of technical development / regulatory aspects training and information feed back.
5. Market infrastructure and application engineering support
6. Comparative system viability and reliability aspects
7. Users perceptions, attitudes and adoption trend
8. Growth in rural economic structure.
Based on the estimates available by studies carried by expert groups, the world market forecasts are available for two different price scenario (high and low). The expected world market will be as follows:
PROJECTIONS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC PRICES AND
SALES 1987-2000 (1987 US$)
LOW PRICE SCENARIO
HIGH PRICE SCENARIO
INDIAN MARKET PROSPECTS
The share of Indian shipment in the world shipment has generally been in the range of 2.5% to 3.5% in the past several years as indicted in the table in the next page.
From out understanding of the various market influencing factors we can come to one clear conclusion that in India at least in the 8th Five Year Plan (1992-1997) we would not see a very rapid improvement in the present situation despite ambitious targets and proposals.
Based on the assumptions as discussed in the report it is expected that Indian shipment would be around 2.5 MW in 1995 and 6.25 MW in 2000 AD (assuming the high price scenario and share of 2.5% in the world PV market). The low price scenario which is most unlikely in case of India may result in a requirement of 7.5 and 125 MW by 1995 and 2000 AD respectively.
INDIAN SHIPMENT VS WORLD SHIPMENT
|YEAR||WORLD SHIPMENT MW||LOCAL SHIPMENT KW||% SHIPMENT|
The actual demand will depend upon coordination and active participation of number of key players including industry, researchers, users, investors, policy makers etc.
REAL MARKET POTENTIAL – INDIA
The actual market potential for PV technology is substantial which is not obvious from what we have projected above. An idea of actual market potential can be had from the actual power need requirement of the rural areas which is not reflected in the above estimate. The market potential for various rural applications is summarized in table below. The actual market will depend upon the penetration that PV would be able to make to get its share in the total power requirement. It is expected based on market evaluation studies that the penetration of PV would be maximum for telecommunication applications followed by refrigeration and provision of clear drinking water for rural areas etc.
MARKET POTENTIAL AS IT WILL EXIST IN (1992-1997)
Total* S.No. Application 1992-97
Potential (MW) prices
|penetration at current|
|1. Village street lighting||80||0 – 2 %|
|2. Irrigation pumping||12500||0 – 2 %|
|3. Drinking water||8||2 – 5 %|
|4. Domestic connections||600||0 – 2 %|
|5. Village industries||1000||0 – 2 %|
|6. Refrigeration||4||5 – 10 %|
|7. Rural health centers||20||0 – 2 %|
|8. Rural telecommunication||1670- 80 %|
|9. Solar lanterns – Households||355 – 10 %|
|10. Evaluation -lighting||7.5||0 – 2 %|
* only penetration will create demand Back